A composite risk model predicts disease progression in early stages of COVID-19: A propensity score-matched cohort study.
Ann Clin Biochem
; 58(5): 434-444, 2021 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1216860
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Recently, studies on COVID-19 have focused on the epidemiology of the disease and clinical characteristics of patients, as well as on the risk factors associated with mortality during hospitalization in critical COVID-19 cases. However, few research has been performed on the prediction of disease progression in particular group of patients in the early stages of COVID-19.METHODS:
The study included 338 patients with COVID-19 treated at two hospitals in Wuhan, China, from December 2019 to March 2020. Predictors of the progression of COVID-19 from mild to severe stages were selected by the logistic regression analysis.RESULTS:
COVID-19 progression to severe and critical stages was confirmed in 78 (23.1%) patients. The average value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was higher in patients in the disease progression group than in the improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that elevated NLR, LDH and IL-10 were independent predictors of disease progression. The optimal cut-off value of NLR was 3.75. The values of the area under the curve, reflecting the accuracy of predicting COVID-19 progression by NLR was 0.739 (95%CI 0.605-0.804). The risk model based on NLR, LDH and IL-10 had the highest area under the ROC curve.CONCLUSIONS:
The performed analysis demonstrates that high concentrations of NLR, LDH and IL-10 were independent risk factors for predicting disease progression in patients at the early stage of COVID-19. The risk model combined with NLR, LDH and IL-10 improved the accuracy of the prediction of disease progression in patients in the early stages of COVID-19.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Ann Clin Biochem
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
00045632211011194
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