Your browser doesn't support javascript.
A composite risk model predicts disease progression in early stages of COVID-19: A propensity score-matched cohort study.
Xu, Jianjun; Gao, Yang; Hu, Shaobo; Li, Suzhen; Wang, Weimin; Wu, Yuzhe; Su, Zhe; Zhou, Xing; Cheng, Xiang; Zheng, Qichang.
  • Xu J; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Gao Y; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Hu S; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Li S; Department of General Surgery, The People's Hospital of Honghu City, Honghu, China.
  • Wang W; Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan Asia General Hospital, Wuhan, China.
  • Wu Y; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Su Z; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Zhou X; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Cheng X; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Zheng Q; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Ann Clin Biochem ; 58(5): 434-444, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1216860
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Recently, studies on COVID-19 have focused on the epidemiology of the disease and clinical characteristics of patients, as well as on the risk factors associated with mortality during hospitalization in critical COVID-19 cases. However, few research has been performed on the prediction of disease progression in particular group of patients in the early stages of COVID-19.

METHODS:

The study included 338 patients with COVID-19 treated at two hospitals in Wuhan, China, from December 2019 to March 2020. Predictors of the progression of COVID-19 from mild to severe stages were selected by the logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS:

COVID-19 progression to severe and critical stages was confirmed in 78 (23.1%) patients. The average value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was higher in patients in the disease progression group than in the improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that elevated NLR, LDH and IL-10 were independent predictors of disease progression. The optimal cut-off value of NLR was 3.75. The values of the area under the curve, reflecting the accuracy of predicting COVID-19 progression by NLR was 0.739 (95%CI 0.605-0.804). The risk model based on NLR, LDH and IL-10 had the highest area under the ROC curve.

CONCLUSIONS:

The performed analysis demonstrates that high concentrations of NLR, LDH and IL-10 were independent risk factors for predicting disease progression in patients at the early stage of COVID-19. The risk model combined with NLR, LDH and IL-10 improved the accuracy of the prediction of disease progression in patients in the early stages of COVID-19.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Ann Clin Biochem Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 00045632211011194

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Ann Clin Biochem Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 00045632211011194