Analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via closed-form solutions of a susceptible-infectious-quarantined-diseased model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function.
Math Methods Appl Sci
; 44(14): 11196-11210, 2021 Sep 30.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1220452
ABSTRACT
We analyze the disease control and prevention strategies in a susceptible-infectious-quarantined-diseased (SIQD) model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function. We have established the closed-form solutions for all the variables of SIQD model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function provided ß ≠ γ + α by utilizing the classical techniques of solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The epidemic peak and time required to attain this peak are provided in closed form. We have provided closed-form expressions for force of infection and rate at which susceptible becomes infected. The management of epidemic perceptive using control and prevention strategies is explained as well. The epidemic starts when ρ 0 > 1, the peak of epidemic appears when number of infected attains peak value when ρ 0 = 1 , and the disease dies out ρ 0 < 1. We have provided the comparison of estimated and actual epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The forecast of epidemic peak for the United states, Brazil, India, and the Syrian Arab Republic is given as well.
Full text:
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Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Methods Appl Sci
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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