Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 18(9)2021 05 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1223999
ABSTRACT
Increasing evidence shows that many infections of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, becoming a global challenge, since asymptomatic infections have the same infectivity as symptomatic infections. We developed a probabilistic model for estimating the proportion of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 patients in the country. We considered two scenarios one is conservative and the other is nonconservative. By combining the above two scenarios, we gave an interval estimation of 0.0001-0.0027 and in terms of the population, 5200-139,900 is the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in South Korea as of 2 February 2021. In addition, we provide estimates for total cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Combination of undetected asymptomatic cases and undetected symptomatic cases to the number of confirmed cases (78,844 cases on 2 February 2021) shows that 0.17-0.42% (89,244-218,744) of the population have COVID-19. In conclusion, to control and understand the true ongoing reality of the pandemic, it is of outermost importance to focus on the ratio of undetected asymptomatic cases in the total population.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS