Discrete and continuum models of COVID-19 virus, formal solutions, stability and comparison with real data.

ABSTRACT

Very recently, various mathematical models, for the dynamics of COVID-19 with main contribution of suspected-exposed-infected-recovered people have been proposed. Some models that account for the deceased, quarantined or social distancing functions were also presented. However, in any local space the real data reveals that the effects of lock-down and traveling are significant in decreasing and increasing the impact of this virus respectively. Here, discrete and continuum models for the dynamics of this virus are suggested. The continuum dynamical model is studied in detail. The present model deals with exposed, infected, recovered and deceased individuals (EIRD), which accounts for the health isolation and travelers (HIT) effects. Up to now no exact solutions of the parametric-dependent, nonlinear dynamical system NLDS were found. In this work, our objective is to find the exact solutions of a NLDS. To this issue, a novel approach is presented where a NLDS is recast to a linear dynamical system LDS. This is done by implementing the unified method (UM), with auxiliary equations, which are taken coupled linear ODE's (LDS). Numerical results of the exact solutions are evaluated, which can be applied to data in a local space (or anywhere) when the initial data for the IRD are known. Here, as an example, initial conditions for the components in the model equation of COVID-19, are taken from the real data in Egypt. The results of susceptible, infected, recovered and deceased people are computed. The comparison between the computed results and the real data shows an agreement up to a relative error 1 0 - 3 . On the other hand it is remarked that locking-down plays a dominant role in decreasing the number of infected people. The equilibrium states are determined and it is found that they are stable. This reveals a relevant result that the COVID-19 can be endemic in the case of a disturbance in the number of the exposed people. A disturbance in the form of an increase in the exposed number, leads to an increase in the number of infected people. This result is, globally, valid. Furthermore, initial states control is analyzed, where region of initial conditions for infected and exposed is determined. We developed a software tool to interact with the model and facilitate applying various data of different local spaces.