A novel fractional mathematical model of COVID-19 epidemic considering quarantine and latent time.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the fractional epidemic mathematical model and dynamics of COVID-19. The Wuhan city of China is considered as the origin of the corona virus. The novel corona virus is continuously spread its range of effectiveness in nearly all corners of the world. Here we analyze that under what parameters and conditions it is possible to slow the speed of spreading of corona virus. We formulate a transmission dynamical model where it is assumed that some portion of the people generates the infections, which is affected by the quarantine and latent time. We study the effect of various parameters of corona virus through the fractional mathematical model. The Laguerre collocation technique is used to deal with the concerned mathematical model numerically. In order to deal with the dynamics of the novel corona virus we collect the experimental data from 15th-21st April, 2020 of Maharashtra state, India. We analyze the effect of various parameters on the numerical solutions by graphical comparison for fractional order as well as integer order. The pictorial presentation of the variation of different parameters used in model are depicted for upper and lower solution both.