Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.
J R Soc Interface
; 18(178): 20201014, 2021 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1234202
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
During infectious disease epidemics, an important question is whether cases travelling to new locations will trigger local outbreaks. The risk of this occurring depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the susceptibility of the host population and, crucially, the effectiveness of surveillance in detecting cases and preventing onward spread. For many pathogens, transmission from pre-symptomatic and/or asymptomatic (together referred to as non-symptomatic) infectious hosts can occur, making effective surveillance challenging. Here, by using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we show how the risk of local outbreaks can be assessed when non-symptomatic transmission can occur. We construct a branching process model that includes non-symptomatic transmission and explore the effects of interventions targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic hosts when surveillance resources are limited. We consider whether the greatest reductions in local outbreak risks are achieved by increasing surveillance and control targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic cases, or a combination of both. We find that seeking to increase surveillance of symptomatic hosts alone is typically not the optimal strategy for reducing outbreak risks. Adopting a strategy that combines an enhancement of surveillance of symptomatic cases with efforts to find and isolate non-symptomatic infected hosts leads to the largest reduction in the probability that imported cases will initiate a local outbreak.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Case report
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rsif.2020.1014
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