Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model.
Am J Med Sci
; 362(4): 355-362, 2021 10.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1240157
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) carries high morbidity and mortality globally. Identification of patients at risk for clinical deterioration upon presentation would aid in triaging, prognostication, and allocation of resources and experimental treatments. RESEARCH QUESTION Can we develop and validate a web-based risk prediction model for identification of patients who may develop severe COVID-19, defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and/or death?METHODS:
This retrospective cohort study reviewed 415 patients admitted to a large urban academic medical center and community hospitals. Covariates included demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. The independent association of predictors with severe COVID-19 was determined using multivariable logistic regression. A derivation cohort (n=311, 75%) was used to develop the prediction models. The models were tested by a validation cohort (n=104, 25%).RESULTS:
The median age was 66 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 54-77) and the majority were male (55%) and non-White (65.8%). The 14-day severe COVID-19 rate was 39.3%; 31.7% required ICU, 24.6% mechanical ventilation, and 21.2% died. Machine learning algorithms and clinical judgment were used to improve model performance and clinical utility, resulting in the selection of eight predictors age, sex, dyspnea, diabetes mellitus, troponin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and aspartate aminotransferase. The discriminative ability was excellent for both the severe COVID-19 (training area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, validation AUC=0.82) and mortality (training AUC= 0.85, validation AUC=0.81) models. These models were incorporated into a mobile-friendly website.CONCLUSIONS:
This web-based risk prediction model can be used at the bedside for prediction of severe COVID-19 using data mostly available at the time of presentation.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Respiration, Artificial
/
Models, Statistical
/
Critical Care
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Am J Med Sci
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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