Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Could COVID-19 pandemic be stopped with joint efforts of travel restrictions and public health countermeasures? A modelling study.
Kong, Lingcai; Hu, Yi; Wang, Qiang; Chen, Xinda; Yao, Tong; Wang, Yu; Jin, Hui; Fan, Lijun; Du, Wei.
  • Kong L; Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China.
  • Hu Y; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Wang Q; Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
  • Chen X; Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China.
  • Yao T; Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China.
  • Wang Y; Department of Global Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Jin H; Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
  • Fan L; Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
  • Du W; Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China duwei@seu.edu.cn.
BMJ Open ; 11(5): e046157, 2021 05 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242205
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak.

DESIGN:

A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios.

SETTING:

Worldwide.

INTERVENTIONS:

Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN

OUTCOME:

The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases.

RESULTS:

The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all.

CONCLUSIONS:

Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Document Type: Article Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2021

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Document Type: Article Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2021
...