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Synchronized nonpharmaceutical interventions for the control of COVID-19.
Zhang, Bing; Liang, Shiwen; Wang, Gang; Zhang, Chi; Chen, Cai; Zou, Min; Shen, Wei; Long, Haoyu; He, Daihai; Shu, Yuelong; Du, Xiangjun.
  • Zhang B; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Liang S; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Wang G; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Zhang C; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Chen C; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Zou M; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Shen W; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Long H; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Shu Y; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Du X; Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 106(2): 1477-1489, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242810
ABSTRACT
The world is experiencing an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In attempts to control the pandemic, a range of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented worldwide. However, the effect of synchronized NPIs for the control of COVID-19 at temporal and spatial scales has not been well studied. Therefore, a meta-population model that incorporates essential nonlinear processes was constructed to uncover the transmission characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and then assess the effectiveness of synchronized NPIs on COVID-19 dynamics in China. Regional synchronization of NPIs was observed in China, and it was found that a combination of synchronized NPIs (the travel restrictions, the social distancing and the infection isolation) prevented 93.7% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The use of synchronized NPIs at the time of the Wuhan lockdown may have prevented as much as 38% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, compared with the unsynchronized scenario. The interconnectivity of the epicenter, the implementation time of synchronized NPIs, and the number of regions considered all affected the performance of synchronized NPIs. The results highlight the importance of using synchronized NPIs in high-risk regions for the control of COVID-19 and shed light on effective strategies for future pandemic responses. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Nonlinear Dyn Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11071-021-06505-0

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Nonlinear Dyn Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11071-021-06505-0