Simple mathematical modelling approaches to assessing the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 at gatherings.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Gatherings may contribute significantly to the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For this reason, public health interventions have sought to constrain unrepeated or recurrent gatherings to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unfortunately, the range of different types of gatherings hinders specific guidance from setting limiting parameters (e.g. total size, number of cohorts, the extent of physical distancing). METHODS: We used a generic modelling framework, based on fundamental probability principles, to derive simple formulas to assess introduction and transmission risks associated with gatherings, as well as the potential efficiency of some testing strategies to mitigate these risks. RESULTS: Introduction risk can be broadly assessed with the population prevalence and the size of the gathering, while transmission risk at a gathering is mainly driven by the gathering size. For recurrent gatherings, the cohort structure does not have a significant impact on transmission between cohorts. Testing strategies can mitigate risk, but frequency of testing and test performance are factors in finding a balance between detection and false positives. CONCLUSION: The generality of the modelling framework used here helps to disentangle the various factors affecting transmission risk at gatherings and may be useful for public health decision-making.