The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different socioeconomic populations in Kuwait: a modeling study.
BMC Public Health
; 21(1): 990, 2021 05 26.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1244918
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait.METHODS:
We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ([Formula see text]). We estimated the basic reproduction number ([Formula see text]) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated [Formula see text] values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios.RESULTS:
We estimate [Formula see text] at 1·08 (95% CI 1·00-1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03-2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, [Formula see text] for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04-1·34) and 1·75 (1·26-2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, [Formula see text] for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82-1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30-3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2.CONCLUSION:
Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12889-021-10984-6
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS