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Conventional risk prediction models fail to accurately predict mortality risk among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in intensive care units: a difficult time to assess clinical severity and quality of care.
Endo, Hideki; Ohbe, Hiroyuki; Kumasawa, Junji; Uchino, Shigehiko; Hashimoto, Satoru; Aoki, Yoshitaka; Asaga, Takehiko; Hashiba, Eiji; Hatakeyama, Junji; Hayakawa, Katsura; Ichihara, Nao; Irie, Hiromasa; Kawasaki, Tatsuya; Kurosawa, Hiroshi; Nakamura, Tomoyuki; Okamoto, Hiroshi; Shigemitsu, Hidenobu; Takaki, Shunsuke; Takimoto, Kohei; Uchida, Masatoshi; Uchimido, Ryo; Miyata, Hiroaki.
  • Endo H; Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan. hidendo-thk@umin.ac.jp.
  • Ohbe H; Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 160-8582, Japan. hidendo-thk@umin.ac.jp.
  • Kumasawa J; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan.
  • Uchino S; Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sakai City Medical Center, 1-1-1 Ebaraji-cho, Nishi-ku, Sakai, Osaka, 593-8304, Japan.
  • Hashimoto S; Intensive Care Unit, The Jikei University School of Medicine, 3-19-18 Nishi-Shinbashi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-8471, Japan.
  • Aoki Y; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, 465 Kajii-cho, Kawaramachi-Hirokoji, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto, 602-8566, Japan.
  • Asaga T; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, 1-20-1 Handayama, Higashi-ku, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka, 431-3192, Japan.
  • Hashiba E; Intensive Care Unit, Kagawa University Hospital, 1750-1 Ikenobe, Miki-cho, Kita-gun, Kagawa, 761-0793, Japan.
  • Hatakeyama J; Division of Intensive Care, Hirosaki University Hospital, 53 Honcho, Hirosaki, Aomori, 036-8203, Japan.
  • Hayakawa K; Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, National Hospital Organization Tokyo Medical Center, 2-5-1, Higashigaoka, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152-8902, Japan.
  • Ichihara N; Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Saitama Red Cross Hospital, 1-5 Shintoshin, Chuo-ku, Saitama, 330-8553, Japan.
  • Irie H; Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
  • Kawasaki T; Department of Anesthesiology, Kurashiki Central Hospital, 1-1-1 Miwa, Kurashiki, Okayama, 710-8602, Japan.
  • Kurosawa H; Department of Pediatric Critical Care, Shizuoka Children's Hospital, 860 Urushiyama, Aoi-ku, Shizuoka, Shizuoka, 420-8660, Japan.
  • Nakamura T; Department of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Hyogo Prefectural Kobe Children's Hospital, 1-6-7 Minatojima Minamimachi, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0047, Japan.
  • Okamoto H; Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, 1-98 Dengakugakubo, Kutsukake-cho, Toyoake, Aichi, 470-1192, Japan.
  • Shigemitsu H; Department of Critical Care Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, 9-1 Akashi-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8560, Japan.
  • Takaki S; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45 Yushima, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8519, Japan.
  • Takimoto K; Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Yokohama City University, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0004, Japan.
  • Uchida M; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Kameda Medical Center, 929 Higashi-cho, Kamogawa, Chiba, 296-8602, Japan.
  • Uchimido R; Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Dokkyo Medical University, 880 Kitakobayashi, Mibu-machi, Shimotsuga-gun, Tochigi, 321-0293, Japan.
  • Miyata H; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45 Yushima, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8519, Japan.
J Intensive Care ; 9(1): 42, 2021 Jun 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1255975
ABSTRACT
Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has remained unknown whether conventional risk prediction tools used in intensive care units are applicable to patients with COVID-19. Therefore, we assessed the performance of established risk prediction models using the Japanese Intensive Care database. Discrimination and calibration of the models were poor. Revised risk prediction models are needed to assess the clinical severity of COVID-19 patients and monitor healthcare quality in ICUs overwhelmed by patients with COVID-19.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: J Intensive Care Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S40560-021-00557-5

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: J Intensive Care Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S40560-021-00557-5