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Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties.
Li, Hanmo; Gu, Mengyang.
  • Li H; Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
  • Gu M; Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA. mengyang@pstat.ucsb.edu.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 11841, 2021 06 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1258591
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ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by [Formula see text] of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around [Formula see text] (or 78 K, [Formula see text] CI [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-90195-6

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-90195-6