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Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes by region, neighbourhood deprivation level and place of death during the first 30 weeks of the pandemic in England and Wales: A retrospective registry study.
Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Mamas, Mamas A; Webb, Roger T; Castro, Ana; Rutter, Martin K; Gale, Chris P; Ashcroft, Darren M; Pierce, Matthias; Abel, Kathryn M; Price, Gareth; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Van Spall, Harriette G C; Graham, Michelle M; Morciano, Marcello; Martin, Glen P; Doran, Tim.
  • Kontopantelis E; Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Mamas MA; NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, United Kingdom.
  • Webb RT; Health Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) research group, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Castro A; Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Rutter MK; Keele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, Keele, England, United Kingdom.
  • Gale CP; Department of Cardiology, Jefferson University, Philadelphia, United States.
  • Ashcroft DM; Centre for Mental Health & Safety, Division of Psychology & Mental Health, University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre (MAHSC), England, United Kingdom.
  • Pierce M; NIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Abel KM; Department of Health Sciences, University of York, England, United Kingdom.
  • Price G; Division of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Faivre-Finn C; Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
  • Van Spall HGC; Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom.
  • Graham MM; Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom.
  • Morciano M; Department of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, England, United Kingdom.
  • Martin GP; NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, United Kingdom.
  • Doran T; NIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 7: 100144, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1260817
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those expected from historical trends have been unequally distributed, both geographically and socioeconomically. Not all excess deaths have been directly related to COVID-19 infection. We investigated geographical and socioeconomic patterns in excess deaths for major groups of underlying causes during the pandemic.

METHODS:

Weekly mortality data from 27/12/2014 to 2/10/2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends for deaths caused directly by COVID-19 (and other respiratory causes) and those caused indirectly by it (cardiovascular disease or diabetes, cancers, and all other indirect causes) over the first 30 weeks of the pandemic (7/3/2020-2/10/2020).

FINDINGS:

There were 62,321 (95% CI 58,849 to 65,793) excess deaths in England and Wales in the first 30 weeks of the pandemic. Of these, 46,221 (95% CI 45,439 to 47,003) were attributable to respiratory causes, including COVID-19, and 16,100 (95% CI 13,410 to 18,790) to other causes. Rates of all-cause excess mortality ranged from 78 per 100,000 in the South West of England and in Wales to 130 per 100,000 in the West Midlands; and from 93 per 100,000 in the most affluent fifth of areas to 124 per 100,000 in the most deprived. The most deprived areas had the highest rates of death attributable to COVID-19 and other indirect deaths, but there was no socioeconomic gradient for excess deaths from cardiovascular disease/diabetes and cancer.

INTERPRETATION:

During the first 30 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic there was significant geographic and socioeconomic variation in excess deaths for respiratory causes, but not for cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Pandemic recovery plans, including vaccination programmes, should take account of individual characteristics including health, socioeconomic status and place of residence.

FUNDING:

None.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Etiology study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100144

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Etiology study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100144