Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Machine Learning Method for COVID-19 Cases Prediction

ABSTRACT

A novel type of coronavirus, now known under the acronym COVID-19, was initially discovered in the city of Wuhan, China. Since then, it has spread across the globe and now it is affecting over 210 countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases is rapidly increasing and has recently reached over 14 million on July 18, 2020, with over 600,000 confirmed deaths. In the research presented within this paper, a new forecasting model to predict the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease is proposed. The model proposed in this paper is a hybrid between machine learning adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and enhanced genetic algorithm metaheuristics. The enhanced genetic algorithm is applied to determine the parameters of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and to enhance the overall quality and performances of the prediction model. Proposed hybrid method was tested by using realistic official dataset on the COVID-19 outbreak in the state of China. In this paper, proposed approach was compared against multiple existing state-of-the-art techniques that were tested in the same environment, on the same datasets. Based on the simulation results and conducted comparative analysis, it is observed that the proposed hybrid approach has outperformed other sophisticated approaches and that it can be used as a tool for other time-series prediction. © 2021, The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.