Exploring early prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis.
Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban
; 50(1): 41-51, 2021 02 25.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1266776
ABSTRACT
To explore early prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 ï¼COVID-19ï¼ outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis. The data of early outbreak of COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organizationï¼covering countries of the Chinaï¼United Statesï¼United Kingdomï¼Australiaï¼Serbia and Italy. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered ï¼SEIRï¼ model was generalized and then its parameters were optimized. According to the parameters in the basic infection number expressionï¼the sensitivity in the system dynamics model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the protection rateï¼infection rate and average quarantine time on the early spread of the outbreak. Based on the analysis resultsï¼targeted prevention and control measures for the early outbreak of COVID-19 were proposed. The generalized SEIR model had a good fit for the early prediction and evaluation of COVID-19 outbreaks in six countries. The spread of COVID-19 was mainly affected by the protection rateï¼infection rate and average quarantine time. The improvement of the protection rate in the first ays was the most importantthe greater the protection rateï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The infection rate in the first 5 days was the most criticalthe smaller the infection rateï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The average quarantine time in the first 5 days was very importantthe shorter the average quarantine timeï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. Through the comparison of key parameters of six countriesï¼Australia and China had implemented strict epidemic prevention policiesï¼which had resulted in good epidemic prevention effects. In the early stage of the outbreakï¼it is necessary to improve the protection rateï¼shorten the average quarantine timeï¼and implement strict isolation policies to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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