Current and future trends for covid-19: A case study of Vadodara, India

ABSTRACT

Background: COVID-19 has been a pandemic and global disaster since the beginning of 2020. However, there is a lack of city/locale based studies on status and trends of COVID-19 in India. Aim: The study aims to report the tests, total cases, cases per age group, zone wise confirmed cases and the status of hospitalization / home quarantining for COVID-19 for the smart city of Vadodara. Methods: A retrospective secondary data analysis conducted on all the COVID-19 cases reported from 3rd April to 15th September 2020 for the city of Vadodara. Data were accessed through the Website of Vadodara Municipal Corporation and analyzed on cumulative number of tests, positive cases, deaths and patients’ recovery for comparison of Vadodara with the State, National and International statistics. Results: COVID-19 was found to be more prevalent among males. The age group of 51-60 years had the highest number of cases. The number of deaths was highest in the age group of 61-70 years. Nonetheless, case fatality rate was highest in the age group of 71-80 years. Vadodara also has shown a steady decrease in test positivity rate and fared better in terms of recovery rate as compared to Gujarat, India and the world. However, 15 day moving average of positive cases and deaths indicated that there will be an increase of the cases in near future. Conclusion: Vadodara showed positive trends in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Vadodara administration had managed to reduce the case fatality rate as compared to Gujarat, India and rest of the world.