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Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making.
Nichols, James D; Bogich, Tiffany L; Howerton, Emily; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Borchering, Rebecca K; Ferrari, Matthew; Haran, Murali; Jewell, Christopher; Pepin, Kim M; Probert, William J M; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Runge, Michael C; Tildesley, Michael; Viboud, Cécile; Shea, Katriona.
  • Nichols JD; U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, United States of America.
  • Bogich TL; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Howerton E; The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Bjørnstad ON; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Borchering RK; The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Ferrari M; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Haran M; Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Jewell C; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Pepin KM; The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Probert WJM; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Pulliam JRC; The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Runge MC; Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
  • Tildesley M; Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
  • Viboud C; National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
  • Shea K; Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
PLoS Biol ; 19(6): e3001307, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1278163
ABSTRACT
More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness and predict, prepare for, and respond to a pandemic, while also continuing to inform individual treatment. By focusing on specific objectives such as individual treatment or disease prediction and control (e.g., via the collection of population-level statistics to inform lockdown measures or vaccine rollout) and drawing from the literature on capture-recapture methods to deal with nonrandom sampling and testing errors, we illustrate how public health objectives can be achieved even with limited test availability when testing programs are designed a priori to meet those objectives.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / Epidemiological Monitoring Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS Biol Journal subject: Biology Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pbio.3001307

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / Epidemiological Monitoring Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS Biol Journal subject: Biology Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pbio.3001307