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Serial population-based serosurveys for COVID-19 in two neighbourhoods of Karachi, Pakistan.
Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Ansari, Nadia; Khalid, Farah; Amin, Mashal; Shahbaz, Hamna; Hotwani, Aneeta; Rehman, Najeeb; Pugh, Sierra; Mehmood, Usma; Rizvi, Arjumand; Memon, Arslan; Ahmed, Zahoor; Ahmed, Ashfaque; Iqbal, Junaid; Saleem, Ali Faisal; Aamir, Uzma Bashir; Larremore, Daniel B; Fosdick, Bailey; Jehan, Fyezah.
  • Nisar MI; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan. Electronic address: Imran.nisar@aku.edu.
  • Ansari N; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Khalid F; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Amin M; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Shahbaz H; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Hotwani A; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Rehman N; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Pugh S; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • Mehmood U; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Rizvi A; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Memon A; Health Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Ahmed Z; Health Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Ahmed A; Health Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Iqbal J; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Saleem AF; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Aamir UB; World Health Organization Country Office, Karachi, Sind, Pakistan.
  • Larremore DB; University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Fosdick B; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • Jehan F; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan. Electronic address: fyezah.jehan@aku.edu.
Int J Infect Dis ; 106: 176-182, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1279595
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

To determine population-based estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely populated urban community of Karachi, Pakistan.

METHODS:

Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in April, June and August 2020 in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods. Participants were selected at random to provide blood for Elecsys immunoassay for detection of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 antibodies. A Bayesian regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence after adjusting for the demographic characteristics of each district.

RESULTS:

In total, 3005 participants from 623 households were enrolled in this study. In Phase 2, adjusted seroprevalence was estimated as 8.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-13.1] and 15.1% (95% CI 9.4-21.7) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively, compared with 0.2% (95% CI 0-0.7) and 0.4% (95% CI 0-1.3) in Phase 1. In Phase 3, it was 12.8% (95% CI 8.3-17.7) and 21.5% (95% CI 15.6-28) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively. The conditional risk of infection was 0.31 (95% CI 0.16-0.47) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.28-0.52) in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods, respectively, in Phase 2. Similar trends were observed in Phase 3. Only 5.4% of participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were symptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 1.66%, 0.37% and 0.26% in Phases 1, 2 and 3, respectively.

CONCLUSION:

Continuing rounds of seroprevalence studies will help to improve understanding of secular trends and the extent of infection during the course of the pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Serological Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Serological Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article