Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 3841, 2021 06 22.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1279878
ABSTRACT
Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society's mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation's climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Aviation
/
Vehicle Emissions
/
Climate Change
/
Global Warming
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-24091-y
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