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Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021.
Yang, Juan; Marziano, Valentina; Deng, Xiaowei; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Zhang, Juanjuan; Trentini, Filippo; Cai, Jun; Poletti, Piero; Zheng, Wen; Wang, Wei; Wu, Qianhui; Zhao, Zeyao; Dong, Kaige; Zhong, Guangjie; Viboud, Cécile; Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Yu, Hongjie.
  • Yang J; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Marziano V; Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Deng X; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Guzzetta G; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhang J; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Trentini F; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Cai J; Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
  • Poletti P; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Zheng W; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Wang W; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Wu Q; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhao Z; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Dong K; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhong G; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Viboud C; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Merler S; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Ajelli M; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
  • Yu H; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Nat Hum Behav ; 5(8): 1009-1020, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1279881
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Vaccination / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-021-01155-z

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Vaccination / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-021-01155-z