A new parameter for predict the clinical outcome of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia: The direct/total bilirubin ratio.

ABSTRACT

AIM: An urgent need to define clinical and laboratory parameters to predict progression to the severe and lethal forms of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To investigate the direct/total bilirubin ratio (D/TBil), as a novel parameter, to predict the poor survival of COVID-19 Pneumonia. METHODS: The clinical characteristics and laboratory parameters of hospitalised COVID-19 pneumonia patients were analysed from 20 March to August 1, 2020, in a tertiary hospital, retrospectively. All remarkable variables were selected for a forward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis to define the independent risk factors for mortality. RESULTS: 537 (248 women and 289 men) patients were separated into two groups for analysis: survivors vs deceased. The mean age of the deceased group was statistically significantly higher than the survivor group 72 (30-92) years vs 50 (18-97) years (P < .001). D/TBil, age, gender, hypertension and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) variables contributed significantly to the binary logistic regression model. The mortality risk increased 14.6 times in patients with D/TBil > 0.5, and 2.4 times in patients with NLR > 4. CONCLUSION: D/TBil > 0.5 was associated with a novel parameter to poor survival of COVID-19 on admission. Also, the combination of age, gender, the presence of hypertension, D/TBil and NLR contributed significantly to predicting the poor survival of COVID-19.