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Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Infection Risk Within the Google/Apple Exposure Notification Framework to Inform Quarantine Recommendations.
Wilson, Amanda M; Aviles, Nathan; Petrie, James I; Beamer, Paloma I; Szabo, Zsombor; Xie, Michelle; McIllece, Janet; Chen, Yijie; Son, Young-Jun; Halai, Sameer; White, Tina; Ernst, Kacey C; Masel, Joanna.
  • Wilson AM; Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA.
  • Aviles N; Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of Utah, 391 Chipeta Way suite c, Salt Lake City, UT, 84108, USA.
  • Petrie JI; Graduate Interdisciplinary Program in Statistics, University of Arizona, 617 N. Santa Rita Ave., Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA.
  • Beamer PI; WeHealth Solutions PBC, 5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011, Sacramento, CA, 95842, USA.
  • Szabo Z; Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. W, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada.
  • Xie M; Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved).
  • McIllece J; Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA.
  • Chen Y; Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved).
  • Son YJ; WeHealth Solutions PBC, 5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011, Sacramento, CA, 95842, USA.
  • Halai S; Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved).
  • White T; World Wide Technology, 1 World Wide Way, St. Louis, MO, 63146, USA.
  • Ernst KC; Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, 1127 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA.
  • Masel J; Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, 1127 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA.
Risk Anal ; 42(1): 162-176, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1961875
ABSTRACT
Most early Bluetooth-based exposure notification apps use three binary classifications to recommend quarantine following SARS-CoV-2 exposure a window of infectiousness in the transmitter, ≥15 minutes duration, and Bluetooth attenuation below a threshold. However, Bluetooth attenuation is not a reliable measure of distance, and infection risk is not a binary function of distance, nor duration, nor timing. We model uncertainty in the shape and orientation of an exhaled virus-containing plume and in inhalation parameters, and measure uncertainty in distance as a function of Bluetooth attenuation. We calculate expected dose by combining this with estimated infectiousness based on timing relative to symptom onset. We calibrate an exponential dose-response curve based on infection probabilities of household contacts. The probability of current or future infectiousness, conditioned on how long postexposure an exposed individual has been symptom-free, decreases during quarantine, with shape determined by incubation periods, proportion of asymptomatic cases, and asymptomatic shedding durations. It can be adjusted for negative test results using Bayes' theorem. We capture a 10-fold range of risk using six infectiousness values, 11-fold range using three Bluetooth attenuation bins, ∼sixfold range from exposure duration given the 30 minute duration cap imposed by the Google/Apple v1.1, and ∼11-fold between the beginning and end of 14 day quarantine. Public health authorities can either set a threshold on initial infection risk to determine 14-day quarantine onset, or on the conditional probability of current and future infectiousness conditions to determine both quarantine and duration.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / Contact Tracing / Disease Notification / Search Engine / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Risk Anal Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Risa.13768

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / Contact Tracing / Disease Notification / Search Engine / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Risk Anal Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Risa.13768