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Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system.
Pang, Jenna K; Jones, Stephen P; Waite, Lindsay L; Olson, Nels A; Armstrong, Jason W; Atmur, Robert J; Cummins, Joshua J.
  • Pang JK; The Boeing Company, USA. Electronic address: jenna.k.pang@boeing.com.
  • Jones SP; The Boeing Company, USA.
  • Waite LL; The Boeing Company, USA.
  • Olson NA; The Boeing Company, USA.
  • Armstrong JW; Boeing Defence Australia.
  • Atmur RJ; The Boeing Company, USA.
  • Cummins JJ; The Boeing Company, USA.
Travel Med Infect Dis ; 43: 102133, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1284576
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger.

METHODS:

Literature was reviewed from May-September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting.

RESULTS:

There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 11.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers.

CONCLUSION:

The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Air Travel / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Travel Med Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Air Travel / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Travel Med Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article