Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system.
Travel Med Infect Dis
; 43: 102133, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1284576
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger.METHODS:
Literature was reviewed from May-September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting.RESULTS:
There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 11.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers.CONCLUSION:
The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Air Travel
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Travel Med Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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