The spreading of covid-19 in India and its impact: A mathematical analysis

ABSTRACT

The rapid spreading of the coronavirus in India and its behaviour for the near future has been studied and analysed as accurately as possible using the SEIR model as a fundamental tool. The official covid-19 data of infected and death cases in India upto 10th October, 2020 have been considered as raw data. The value of various parameters of the model is optimised by feeding the raw data in the simulation model. The various parameters are defined as infection rate, basic reproduction number, death rate, recovery time, exposure time, and other parameters to optimise the best fit model. The total population of India is considered 1.36 billion people. The simulation results that the number of recovered people will be 2.8 × 108 and number of deaths will be 4.2 × 106 after 800 days for the total population of India. In an ideal scenario, at the end of the pandemic total death count is expected to be of the order of 106 which is a big challenge.