COVID-19 in Cuba. Notes for debating statistical-mathematical methods

ABSTRACT

Epidemiology and the statistical-mathematical methods associated with it are fields that acquire relevance in light of the confrontation with the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cuba. To optimize efforts in future battles, it is necessary to critically analyze what has been done in this regard. The objective of this work is to identify the shortcomings in the epidemiological approach and associated statistical-mathematical techniques, in the statistical treatment of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. A documentary review was carried out, mainly of Cuban medical journals, and in the Pubmed database. Articles and reports were selected that dealt with the subject of COVID-19 from an epidemiological and/or statistical-mathematical perspective. The use of statistical-mathematical techniques without an adequate epidemiological basis can generate false expectations and make it difficult to make adequate decisions. This occurs, in particular, with models that aim to describe, analyze and predict the behavior of the curves of active cases. The issues discussed, of a statistical-epidemiological nature, can contribute modestly to the necessary debates, without which it is impossible to make an objective assessment of the situation.