Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Estimating the Prevalence of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases and Their Contribution in Transmission - Using Henan Province, China, as an Example.
Li, Chunyu; Zhu, Yuchen; Qi, Chang; Liu, Lili; Zhang, Dandan; Wang, Xu; She, Kaili; Jia, Yan; Liu, Tingxuan; He, Daihai; Xiong, Momiao; Li, Xiujun.
  • Li C; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Zhu Y; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Qi C; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Liu L; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Zhang D; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Wang X; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • She K; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Jia Y; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Liu T; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Xiong M; Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, United States.
  • Li X; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 8: 591372, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1304597
ABSTRACT

Background:

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example.

Methods:

We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, R t .

Results:

The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R 0 = 2.73, and R t dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures.

Conclusion:

The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: Front Med (Lausanne) Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fmed.2021.591372

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: Front Med (Lausanne) Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fmed.2021.591372