Estimating the Prevalence of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases and Their Contribution in Transmission - Using Henan Province, China, as an Example.
Front Med (Lausanne)
; 8: 591372, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1304597
ABSTRACT
Background:
Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example.Methods:
We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, R t .Results:
The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R 0 = 2.73, and R t dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures.Conclusion:
The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
Topics:
Variants
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Med (Lausanne)
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fmed.2021.591372
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