Your browser doesn't support javascript.
A Bayesian Model to Predict COVID-19 Severity in Children.
Domínguez-Rodríguez, Sara; Villaverde, Serena; Sanz-Santaeufemia, Francisco J; Grasa, Carlos; Soriano-Arandes, Antoni; Saavedra-Lozano, Jesús; Fumadó, Victoria; Epalza, Cristina; Serna-Pascual, Miquel; Alonso-Cadenas, José A; Rodríguez-Molino, Paula; Pujol-Morro, Joan; Aguilera-Alonso, David; Simó, Silvia; Villanueva-Medina, Sara; Iglesias-Bouzas, M Isabel; Mellado, M José; Herrero, Blanca; Melendo, Susana; De la Torre, Mercedes; Del Rosal, Teresa; Soler-Palacin, Pere; Calvo, Cristina; Urretavizcaya-Martínez, María; Pareja, Marta; Ara-Montojo, Fátima; Ruiz Del Prado, Yolanda; Gallego, Nerea; Illán Ramos, Marta; Cobos, Elena; Tagarro, Alfredo; Moraleda, Cinta.
  • Domínguez-Rodríguez S; From the Fundación de Investigación Biomédica Hospital 12 de Octubre, Instituto de Investigación 12 de Octubre (imas12), Madrid, Spain.
  • Villaverde S; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Sanz-Santaeufemia FJ; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario 12 Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
  • Grasa C; From the Fundación de Investigación Biomédica Hospital 12 de Octubre, Instituto de Investigación 12 de Octubre (imas12), Madrid, Spain.
  • Soriano-Arandes A; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Saavedra-Lozano J; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario 12 Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
  • Fumadó V; Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
  • Epalza C; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Serna-Pascual M; Paediatrics, Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Instituto Investigación Hospital La Paz (IDIPaz), Madrid, Spain.
  • Alonso-Cadenas JA; Pediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunodeficiencies Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
  • Rodríguez-Molino P; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.
  • Pujol-Morro J; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario Sant Joan de Deu Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Aguilera-Alonso D; From the Fundación de Investigación Biomédica Hospital 12 de Octubre, Instituto de Investigación 12 de Octubre (imas12), Madrid, Spain.
  • Simó S; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Villanueva-Medina S; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario 12 Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
  • Iglesias-Bouzas MI; From the Fundación de Investigación Biomédica Hospital 12 de Octubre, Instituto de Investigación 12 de Octubre (imas12), Madrid, Spain.
  • Mellado MJ; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Herrero B; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario 12 Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
  • Melendo S; Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
  • De la Torre M; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Del Rosal T; Paediatrics, Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Instituto Investigación Hospital La Paz (IDIPaz), Madrid, Spain.
  • Soler-Palacin P; Pediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunodeficiencies Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
  • Calvo C; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.
  • Urretavizcaya-Martínez M; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario Sant Joan de Deu Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Pareja M; From the Fundación de Investigación Biomédica Hospital 12 de Octubre, Instituto de Investigación 12 de Octubre (imas12), Madrid, Spain.
  • Ara-Montojo F; RITIP (Translational Research Network in Paediatric Infectious Diseases), Madrid, Spain.
  • Ruiz Del Prado Y; Paediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Universitario 12 Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
  • Gallego N; Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
  • Illán Ramos M; Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
  • Cobos E; Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
  • Tagarro A; Pediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunodeficiencies Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
  • Moraleda C; Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús, Madrid, Spain.
Pediatr Infect Dis J ; 40(8): e287-e293, 2021 08 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1305449
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

We aimed to identify risk factors causing critical disease in hospitalized children with COVID-19 and to build a predictive model to anticipate the probability of need for critical care.

METHODS:

We conducted a multicenter, prospective study of children with SARS-CoV-2 infection in 52 Spanish hospitals. The primary outcome was the need for critical care. We used a multivariable Bayesian model to estimate the probability of needing critical care.

RESULTS:

The study enrolled 350 children from March 12, 2020, to July 1, 2020 292 (83.4%) and 214 (73.7%) were considered to have relevant COVID-19, of whom 24.2% required critical care. Four major clinical syndromes of decreasing severity were identified multi-inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) (17.3%), bronchopulmonary (51.4%), gastrointestinal (11.6%), and mild syndrome (19.6%). Main risk factors were high C-reactive protein and creatinine concentration, lymphopenia, low platelets, anemia, tachycardia, age, neutrophilia, leukocytosis, and low oxygen saturation. These risk factors increased the risk of critical disease depending on the syndrome the more severe the syndrome, the more risk the factors conferred. Based on our findings, we developed an online risk prediction tool (https//rserver.h12o.es/pediatria/EPICOAPP/, username user, password 0000).

CONCLUSIONS:

Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include inflammation, cytopenia, age, comorbidities, and organ dysfunction. The more severe the syndrome, the more the risk factor increases the risk of critical illness. Risk of severe disease can be predicted with a Bayesian model.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome / COVID-19 Type of study: Etiology study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Risk factors Limits: Adolescent / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Infant, Newborn Language: English Journal: Pediatr Infect Dis J Journal subject: Communicable Diseases / Pediatrics Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: INF.0000000000003204

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome / COVID-19 Type of study: Etiology study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Risk factors Limits: Adolescent / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Infant, Newborn Language: English Journal: Pediatr Infect Dis J Journal subject: Communicable Diseases / Pediatrics Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: INF.0000000000003204