Impact of COVID-19 on Medium-Term Export Prospects for Soybeans, Corn, Beef, Pork, and Poultry.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered life in innumerable ways in many countries across the globe. In this article I review what the virus did to patterns of US and Brazilian exports of major commodities during the first surge of the virus during April and May 2020, and also speculate on what may happen during the beginning of North American winter in late 2020. The analysis highlights how grains versus meats have been vulnerable to trade disruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic. US exports of beef and pork were particularly impacted by a wave of processing facility shutdowns in the wake of COVID-19 outbreaks among workers. Poultry exports saw declines from their highs but remain strong, even though poultry-processing facilities have also faced issues with outbreaks and shutdowns. Trends in 2020 grain and oilseed exports have not been affected by the pandemic.