Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
; 376(1829): 20200263, 2021 07 19.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309683
ABSTRACT
Analytical expressions and approximations from simple models have performed a pivotal role in our understanding of infectious disease epidemiology. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, while there has been proliferation of increasingly complex models, still the most basic models have provided the core framework for our thinking and interpreting policy decisions. Here, classic results are presented that give insights into both the role of transmission-reducing interventions (such as social distancing) in controlling an emerging epidemic, and also what would happen if insufficient control is applied. Though these are simple results from the most basic of epidemic models, they give valuable benchmarks for comparison with the outputs of more complex modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rstb.2020.0263
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