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Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Fyles, Martyn; Fearon, Elizabeth; Overton, Christopher; Wingfield, Tom; Medley, Graham F; Hall, Ian; Pellis, Lorenzo; House, Thomas.
  • Fyles M; Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PY, UK.
  • Fearon E; The Alan Turing Institute, London NW1 2DB, UK.
  • Overton C; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
  • Wingfield T; Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PY, UK.
  • Hall I; Department of Clinical Sciences and International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK.
  • Pellis L; Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool L7 8XP, UK.
  • House T; WHO Collaborating Centre on Tuberculosis and Social Medicine, Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci ; 376(1829): 20200267, 2021 07 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309687
ABSTRACT
We explore strategies of contact tracing, case isolation and quarantine of exposed contacts to control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using a branching process model with household structure. This structure reflects higher transmission risks among household members than among non-household members. We explore strategic implementation choices that make use of household structure, and investigate strategies including two-step tracing, backwards tracing, smartphone tracing and tracing upon symptom report rather than test results. The primary model outcome is the effect of contact tracing, in combination with different levels of physical distancing, on the growth rate of the epidemic. Furthermore, we investigate epidemic extinction times to indicate the time period over which interventions must be sustained. We consider effects of non-uptake of isolation/quarantine, non-adherence, and declining recall of contacts over time. Our results find that, compared to self-isolation of cases without contact tracing, a contact tracing strategy designed to take advantage of household structure allows for some relaxation of physical distancing measures but cannot completely control the epidemic absent of other measures. Even assuming no imported cases and sustainment of moderate physical distancing, testing and tracing efforts, the time to bring the epidemic to extinction could be in the order of months to years. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Rstb.2020.0267

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Rstb.2020.0267