Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
; 376(1829): 20200270, 2021 07 19.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309689
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Contact Tracing
/
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rstb.2020.0270
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