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The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach.
Alagoz, Oguzhan; Sethi, Ajay K; Patterson, Brian W; Churpek, Matthew; Alhanaee, Ghalib; Scaria, Elizabeth; Safdar, Nasia.
  • Alagoz O; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Sethi AK; Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Patterson BW; Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Churpek M; Berbee Walsh Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Alhanaee G; Pulmonary and Critical Care Division in the Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Scaria E; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
  • Safdar N; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0254456, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309962
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ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model.

METHODS:

We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur.

RESULTS:

The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine.

DISCUSSION:

In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Patient Compliance / Vaccination Coverage / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0254456

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Patient Compliance / Vaccination Coverage / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0254456