Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households.

ABSTRACT

Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measures, but to date it is still under debate. To address this problem, we have formulated a detailed mathematical model of discrete human actions (such as coughs, sneezes, and touching) and the continuous decay of the virus in the environment. To take into account those discrete and continuous events we have extended the common modelling approach and employed a hybrid stochastic mathematical framework. This allowed us to calculate higher order statistics which are crucial for the reconstruction of the observed distributions. We focused on transmission within a household, the venue with the highest risk of infection and validated the model results against the observed secondary attack rate and the serial interval distribution. Detailed analysis of the model results identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission as the contact route via hand-face transfer and showed that wearing masks and avoiding physical contact are an effective prevention strategy. These results provide a sound scientific basis to the present recommendations of the WHO and the CDC.