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The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach.
Aguilar-Madera, Carlos G; Espinosa-Paredes, Gilberto; Herrera-Hernández, E C; Briones Carrillo, Jorge A; Valente Flores-Cano, J; Matías-Pérez, Víctor.
  • Aguilar-Madera CG; Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra, C.P. 67700, Linares, Mexico.
  • Espinosa-Paredes G; Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Área de Ingeniería en Recursos Energéticos, CDMX 09340, Mexico.
  • Herrera-Hernández EC; Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, Av. Dr. Manuel Nava 6, Zona Universitaria, 78210 San Luis Potosí, Mexico.
  • Briones Carrillo JA; Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra, C.P. 67700, Linares, Mexico.
  • Valente Flores-Cano J; Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra, C.P. 67700, Linares, Mexico.
  • Matías-Pérez V; Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra, C.P. 67700, Linares, Mexico.
Results Phys ; 27: 104555, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1313418
ABSTRACT
In this work, we analyze the spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico using the spatial SEIRD epidemiologic model. We use the information of the 32 regions (States) that conform the country, such as population density, verified infected cases, and deaths in each State. We extend the SEIRD compartmental epidemiologic with diffusion mechanisms in the exposed and susceptible populations. We use the Fickian law with the diffusion coefficient proportional to the population density to encompass the diffusion effects. The numerical results suggest that the epidemiologic model demands time-dependent parameters to incorporate non-monotonous behavior in the actual data in the global dynamic. The diffusional model proposed in this work has great potential in predicting the virus spreading on different scales, i.e., local, national, and between countries, since the complete reduction in people mobility is impossible.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Journal: Results Phys Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.rinp.2021.104555

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Journal: Results Phys Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.rinp.2021.104555