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[Analysis on dynamical mechanism of multi outbreaks of COVID-19].
Xiao, Y N; Li, Q; Zhou, W K; Peng, Z H; Tang, S Y.
  • Xiao YN; Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
  • Li Q; Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
  • Zhou WK; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710019, China.
  • Peng ZH; School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
  • Tang SY; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710019, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 42(6): 966-976, 2021 Jun 10.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1314795
ABSTRACT

Objective:

In the context of COVID-19 pandemic, the epidemic severities, non-pharmaceutical intervention intensities, individual behavior patterns and vaccination coverage vary with countries in the world. China has experienced a long period without indigenous cases, unfortunately, multi local outbreaks caused by imported cases and other factors have been reported, posing great challenges to COVID-19 prevention and control in China. Thus it is necessary to explore the mechanisms of the re-emerged COVID-19 epidemics and their differences.

Methods:

Based on susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamics model, we developed a set of novel evolution equations which can describe the dynamic processes of integrated influence of interventions, vaccination coverage and individual behavior changes on the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic. We developed methods to calculate the optimal intervention intensity and vaccination rate at which the size of susceptible population can be reduced to less than threshold for the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic.

Results:

If strong interventions or super interventions are lifted too early, even a small cause can lead to the re-emergence of COVID-19 epidemic at different degrees. Moreover, the stronger the early control measures lifted are, the more severe the epidemic is. The individual behavior changes for the susceptibility to the epidemic and the enhancement or lifting of prevention and control measures are key factors to influence the incidence the multi outbreaks of COVID-19. The optimist early intervention measures and timely optimization of vaccination can not only prevent the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic, but also effectively lower the peak of the first wave of the epidemic and delay its arrival.

Conclusion:

The study revealed that factors for the re-emergence of COVID-19 epidemics included the intensity and lifting of interventions, the change of individual behavior to the response of the epidemic, external incentives and the transmissibility of COVID-19.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: Chinese Journal: Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cma.j.cn112338-20210219-00123

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: Chinese Journal: Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cma.j.cn112338-20210219-00123