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Making waves: Defining the lead time of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19.
Olesen, Scott W; Imakaev, Maxim; Duvallet, Claire.
  • Olesen SW; Biobot Analytics, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Imakaev M; Biobot Analytics, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Duvallet C; Biobot Analytics, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA. Electronic address: claire@biobot.io.
Water Res ; 202: 117433, 2021 Sep 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1322388
ABSTRACT
Individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may shed the virus in stool before developing symptoms, suggesting that measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater could be a "leading indicator" of COVID-19 prevalence. Multiple studies have corroborated the leading indicator concept by showing that the correlation between wastewater measurements and COVID-19 case counts is maximized when case counts are lagged. However, the meaning of "leading indicator" will depend on the specific application of wastewater-based epidemiology, and the correlation analysis is not relevant for all applications. In fact, the quantification of a leading indicator will depend on epidemiological, biological, and health systems factors. Thus, there is no single "lead time" for wastewater-based COVID-19 monitoring. To illustrate this complexity, we enumerate three different applications of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 a qualitative "early warning" system; an independent, quantitative estimate of disease prevalence; and a quantitative alert of bursts of disease incidence. The leading indicator concept has different definitions and utility in each application.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Water Res Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.watres.2021.117433

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Water Res Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.watres.2021.117433