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Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence.
Kraemer, Moritz U G; Hill, Verity; Ruis, Christopher; Dellicour, Simon; Bajaj, Sumali; McCrone, John T; Baele, Guy; Parag, Kris V; Battle, Anya Lindström; Gutierrez, Bernardo; Jackson, Ben; Colquhoun, Rachel; O'Toole, Áine; Klein, Brennan; Vespignani, Alessandro; Volz, Erik; Faria, Nuno R; Aanensen, David M; Loman, Nicholas J; du Plessis, Louis; Cauchemez, Simon; Rambaut, Andrew; Scarpino, Samuel V; Pybus, Oliver G.
  • Kraemer MUG; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil. a.rambaut@ed.ac.uk moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk s.scarpino@northeastern.edu oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
  • Hill V; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Ruis C; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Dellicour S; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Bajaj S; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • McCrone JT; Molecular Immunity Unit, Department of Medicine, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.
  • Baele G; Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, USA.
  • Parag KV; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Battle AL; Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium.
  • Gutierrez B; Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
  • Jackson B; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
  • Colquhoun R; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • O'Toole Á; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Klein B; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Vespignani A; Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, UK.
  • Volz E; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Faria NR; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Aanensen DM; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
  • Loman NJ; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • du Plessis L; Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Cauchemez S; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
  • Rambaut A; Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Scarpino SV; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Pybus OG; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Science ; 373(6557): 889-895, 2021 08 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1322770
ABSTRACT
Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article