The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 18(15)2021 07 24.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1325663
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 pandemic has globally overwhelmed all sectors of life. The fast development of vaccines against COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the course of the pandemic.METHODS:
Global data from Google Trends was analyzed for vaccines against flu, BCG, HPV, pneumococcal disease, polio, and COVID-19. The time frame includes the last five-year period starting from 17 April 2016. Multiple training of time series models with back testing, including Holt-Winters forecasting, Exponential Smoothing State Space, Linear model with trend and seasonal components (tlsm), and ARIMA was conducted. Forecasting according to the best fitting model was performed.RESULTS:
Correlation analysis did not reveal a decrease in interest in vaccines during the analyzed period. The prediction models provided a short-term forecast of the dynamics of interest for flu, HPV, pneumococcal and polio vaccines with 5-10% growth in interest for the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of 2021.CONCLUSIONS:
Despite the huge interest in the COVID-19 vaccine, there has not been a detectable decline in the overall interest in the five analyzed vaccines.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Ijerph18157841
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