Effect of Non-lockdown Social Distancing and Testing-Contact Tracing During a COVID-19 Outbreak in Daegu, South Korea, February to April 2020: A Modeling Study.
Int J Infect Dis
; 110: 213-221, 2021 Sep.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1330872
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
In Spring 2020, South Korea applied non-lockdown social distancing (avoiding mass gathering and non-essential social engagement, without restricting the movement of people who were not patients or contacts), testing-and-isolation (testing), and tracing-and-quarantine the contacts (contact tracing) to successfully control the first large-scale COVID-19 outbreak outside China. However, the relative contributions of these two interventions remain uncertain.METHODS:
We constructed an SEIR model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (disproportionately through superspreading events) and fit the model to outbreak data in Daegu, South Korea, from February to April 2020. We assessed the effect of non-lockdown social distancing (population-wide control measures) and/or testing-contact tracing (individual-specific control measures), alone or combined, in terms of the basic reproductive number (R0) and the trajectory of the epidemic.RESULTS:
The point estimate for baseline R0 is 3.6 (sensitivity analyses range 2.3 to 5.6). Combined interventions of non-lockdown social distancing and testing-contact tracing can suppress R0 to less than one and rapidly contain the epidemic, even under the worst scenario with a high baseline R0 of 5.6. In contrast, either intervention alone will fail to suppress R0. Non-lockdown social distancing alone just postpones the peak of the epidemic, while testing-contact tracing alone only flattens the curve but does not contain the outbreak.CONCLUSIONS:
To successfully control a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak, both non-lockdown social distancing and testing-contact tracing must be implemented. The two interventions are synergistic.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Contact Tracing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.ijid.2021.07.058
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