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A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.
Iftekhar, Emil Nafis; Priesemann, Viola; Balling, Rudi; Bauer, Simon; Beutels, Philippe; Calero Valdez, André; Cuschieri, Sarah; Czypionka, Thomas; Dumpis, Uga; Glaab, Enrico; Grill, Eva; Hanson, Claudia; Hotulainen, Pirta; Klimek, Peter; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Krüger, Tyll; Krutzinna, Jenny; Low, Nicola; Machado, Helena; Martins, Carlos; McKee, Martin; Mohr, Sebastian Bernd; Nassehi, Armin; Perc, Matjaz; Petelos, Elena; Pickersgill, Martyn; Prainsack, Barbara; Rocklöv, Joacim; Schernhammer, Eva; Staines, Anthony; Szczurek, Ewa; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Van Gucht, Steven; Willeit, Peter.
  • Iftekhar EN; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
  • Priesemann V; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
  • Balling R; University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
  • Bauer S; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
  • Beutels P; University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Calero Valdez A; RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany.
  • Cuschieri S; University of Malta, Msida, Malta.
  • Czypionka T; Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics, London, UK.
  • Dumpis U; Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
  • Glaab E; University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
  • Grill E; Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany.
  • Hanson C; Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Hotulainen P; Minerva Foundation Institute for Medical Research, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Klimek P; Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, and Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
  • Kretzschmar M; University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Krüger T; Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland.
  • Krutzinna J; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
  • Low N; University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
  • Machado H; Institute for Social Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal.
  • Martins C; Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
  • McKee M; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Mohr SB; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
  • Nassehi A; Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany.
  • Perc M; University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
  • Petelos E; University of Crete, Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
  • Pickersgill M; University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Prainsack B; Department of Political Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
  • Rocklöv J; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
  • Schernhammer E; Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
  • Staines A; Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
  • Szczurek E; University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
  • Tsiodras S; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
  • Van Gucht S; Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Willeit P; Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 8: 100185, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1331031
ABSTRACT
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100185

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Language: English Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.lanepe.2021.100185