Mathematical model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with optimal control.
Results Phys
; 28: 104598, 2021 Sep.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1331208
ABSTRACT
The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this work, we proposed a mathematical model of COVID-19. We carried out the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator which is the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of this model, stability analysis of COVID-19 free equilibrium (CFE) and Endemic equilibrium (EE) using Lyaponuv function are considered. We extended the basic model into optimal control system by incorporating three control strategies. These are; use of face-mask and hand sanitizer along with social distancing; treatment of COVID-19 patients and active screening with testing and the third control is prevention against recurrence and reinfection of humans who have recovered from COVID-19. Daily data given by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) in Nigeria is used for simulation of the proposed COVID-19 model to see the effects of the control measures. The biological interpretation of this findings is that, COVID-19 can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if the control measures implemented are capable of taking or sustaining the basic reproductive number R 0 to a value below unity. If the three control strategies are well managed by the government namely; NCDC, Presidential Task Force (PTF) and Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) or policymakers, then COVID-19 in Nigeria will be eradicated.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Qualitative research
Language:
English
Journal:
Results Phys
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.rinp.2021.104598
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