Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(8): 1740-1748, 2020 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-133150
ABSTRACT
By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20-59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Contact Tracing
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Hospitalization
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Emerg Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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