Mortality burden from seasonal influenza in Chongqing, China, 2012-2018.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To estimate influenza-associated excess mortality rates (EMRs) in Chongqing from 2012 to 2018. METHODS: We obtained weekly mortality data for all-cause and four underlying causes of death (circulatory and respiratory disease (CRD), pneumonia and influenza (P&I), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ischemic heart disease (IDH)), and influenza surveillance data, from 2012 to 2018. A negative-binomial regression model was used to estimate influenza-associated EMRs in two age groups (<65 years and ≥65 years). RESULTS: It was estimated that an annual average of 10025 influenza-associated deaths occurred in Chongqing, corresponding to 5.2% of all deaths. The average EMR for all-cause death associated with influenza was 33.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 31.5-35.6) per 100 000 persons, and in separate cause-specific models we attributed 24.7 (95% CI 23.3-26.0), 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.8), 8.5 (95% CI 8.1-9.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.7-5.3) per 100 000 persons EMRs to CRD, P&I, COPD and IDH, respectively. The estimated EMR for influenza B virus was 20.6 (95% CI 20.3-21.0), which was significantly higher than the rates of 5.3 (95% CI 4.5-6.1) and 7.5 (95% CI 6.7-8.3) for A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) pdm09 virus, respectively. The estimated EMR was 152.3 (95% CI 136.1-168.4) for people aged ≥65 years, which was significantly higher than the rate for those aged <65 years (6.8, 95% CI 6.3-7.2). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was associated with substantial EMRs in Chongqing, especially among elderly people. Influenza B virus caused a relatively higher excess mortality impact compared with A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2). It is advisable to optimize future seasonal influenza vaccine reimbursement policy in Chongqing to curb disease burden.