Covid-19 outpatient screening: A novel risk score to early predict admission in isolation care units

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time. Delays in hospitalization of patients with a severe form of COVID-19 contribute to increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to perform a reliable and easy-to-use risk scoring system to early predict admission in COVID-19 isolation care units. It was a prospective study including all patients, consulting to the COVID-19 sorting box at Hedi Chaker university hospital, and who were clinically suspected COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave between March and June 2020. Of all,388 patients were enrolled in the study.Multivariate analysis showed that factors independently associated with admission to COVID-19 isolation tertiary-care unit were oxygen saturation<88% (Adjusted Relative Risk (ARR)=16.91;p=0.013), hypotension (ARR=11.71;p=0.004),oxygen saturation between 88 and 92% (ARR=5.90;p=0.001),respiratory wrestling signs (ARR=4.63;p=0.042),dyspnea (ARR=3.22;p<0.001), chronic hypertension (ARR=2.76;p=0.027) and ischemic heart diseases (ARR=2.67;p=0.035).The score had an AUROC of 0.75.At a cut-off point≥2, the scoring system had a sensitivity of 82.7%, a specificity of 53.8%, a positive predictive value of 53% and a negative predictive value 83.1%.When the cut-off was raised to 3, the sensitivity dropped (44%) and the specificity increased appreciably (92.9%).