Large-scale frequent testing and tracing to supplement control of Covid-19 and vaccination rollout constrained by supply.
Infect Dis Model
; 6: 955-974, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1336464
ABSTRACT
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were implemented all around the world in the fight against COVID-19 Social distancing, shelter-in-place, mask wearing, etc. to mitigate transmission, together with testing and contact-tracing to identify, isolate and treat the infected. The majority of countries have relied on the former measures, followed by a ramping up of their testing and tracing capabilities. We present here the cases of South Korea, Italy, Canada and the United States, as a look back to lessons that can be drawn for controlling the pandemic, specifically through the means of testing and tracing. By fitting a disease transmission model to daily case report data in each of the four countries, we first show that their combination of social-distancing and testing/tracing have had a significant impact on the evolution of their first wave of pandemic curves. We then consider the hypothetical scenario where the only NPI measures implemented past the first pandemic wave consisted of isolating individuals due to repeated, country-scale testing and contact tracing, as a mean of lifting social distancing measures without a resurgence of COVID-19. We give estimates on the average isolation rates needed to occur in each country. We find that testing and tracing each individual of a country, on average, every 4.5 days (South Korea), 5.7 days (Canada), 6 days (Italy) and 3.5 days (US), would have been sufficient to mitigate their second pandemic waves. We also considered the situation in Canada to see how a frequent large-scale asymptomatic testing and contact tracing could have been used in combination with vaccination rollout to reduce the infection in the population. This could offer an alternative approach towards preventing and controlling an outbreak when vaccine supply is limited, while testing capacity has been increasingly enhanced.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
Topics:
Vaccines
Language:
English
Journal:
Infect Dis Model
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.idm.2021.06.008
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