A multi-layer model for the early detection of COVID-19.
J R Soc Interface
; 18(181): 20210284, 2021 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1338769
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Current COVID-19 screening efforts mainly rely on reported symptoms and the potential exposure to infected individuals. Here, we developed a machine-learning model for COVID-19 detection that uses four layers of information (i) sociodemographic characteristics of the individual, (ii) spatio-temporal patterns of the disease, (iii) medical condition and general health consumption of the individual and (iv) information reported by the individual during the testing episode. We evaluated our model on 140 682 members of Maccabi Health Services who were tested for COVID-19 at least once between February and October 2020. These individuals underwent, in total, 264 516 COVID-19 PCR tests, out of which 16 512 were positive. Our multi-layer model obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 81.6% when evaluated over all the individuals in the dataset, and an AUC of 72.8% when only individuals who did not report any symptom were included. Furthermore, considering only information collected before the testing episode-i.e. before the individual had the chance to report on any symptom-our model could reach a considerably high AUC of 79.5%. Our ability to predict early on the outcomes of COVID-19 tests is pivotal for breaking transmission chains, and can be used for a more efficient testing policy.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rsif.2021.0284
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