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A hospital-related outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 associated with variant Epsilon (B.1.429) in Taiwan: transmission potential and outbreak containment under intensified contact tracing, January-February 2021.
Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Jung, Sung-Mok; Cheng, Hao-Yuan; Thompson, Robin N.
  • Akhmetzhanov AR; College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: akhmetzhanov@ntu.edu.tw.
  • Jung SM; School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan.
  • Cheng HY; Epidemic Intelligence Centre, Taiwan Centres for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Thompson RN; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Int J Infect Dis ; 110: 15-20, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1340673
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

A hospital-related cluster of 22 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Taiwan in January-February 2021. Rigorous control measures were introduced and could only be relaxed once the outbreak was declared over. Each day after the apparent outbreak end, we estimated the risk of future cases occurring in order to inform decision-making.

METHODS:

Probabilistic transmission networks were reconstructed, and transmission parameters (the reproduction number R and overdispersion parameter k) were estimated. The reporting delay during the outbreak was estimated (Scenario 1). In addition, a counterfactual scenario with less effective interventions characterized by a longer reporting delay was considered (Scenario 2). Each day, the risk of future cases was estimated under both scenarios.

RESULTS:

The values of R and k were estimated to be 1.30 ((95% credible interval (CI) 0.57-3.80) and 0.38 (95% CI 0.12-1.20), respectively. The mean reporting delays considered were 2.5 days (Scenario 1) and 7.8 days (Scenario 2). Following the final case, ttthe inferred probability of future cases occurring declined more quickly in Scenario 1 than Scenario 2.

CONCLUSIONS:

Rigorous control measures allowed the outbreak to be declared over quickly following outbreak containment. This highlights the need for effective interventions, not only to reduce cases during outbreaks but also to allow outbreaks to be declared over with confidence.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article