Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 4673, 2021 08 03.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1340997
ABSTRACT
Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). Our findings suggest that boosting the vaccination capacity up to 2.5 million first doses per day (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden, should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number ≤1.5. The highest priority categories are consistent under a broad range of assumptions. Finally, a high vaccination capacity in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Health Care Rationing
/
Mass Vaccination
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-24872-5
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