Negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR or rapid antigen test result and the subsequent risk of being infectious: a mathematical simulation study.
BMC Med Res Methodol
; 21(1): 165, 2021 08 10.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1352645
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
A considerable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. Therefore, different polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- or rapid antigen test (RAT)-based approaches are being discussed and applied to identify infectious individuals that would have otherwise gone undetected. In this article, we provide a framework to estimate the time-dependent risk of being infectious after a negative SARS-CoV-2 test, and we simulate the number of expected infectious individuals over time in populations who initially tested negative.METHODS:
A Monte Carlo approach is used to simulate asymptomatic infections over a 10-days period in populations of 1000 individuals following a negative SARS-CoV-2 test. Parameters representing the application of PCR tests or RATs are utilized, and SARS-CoV-2 cumulative 7-day incidences between 25 and 200 per 100,000 people are considered. Simulation results are compared to case numbers predicted via a mathematical equation.RESULTS:
The simulations showed a continuous increase in infectious individuals over time in populations of individuals who initially tested SARS-CoV-2 negative. The interplay between false negative rates of PCR tests or RATs, and the time that has passed since testing determines the number of infectious individuals. The simulated and the mathematically predicted number of infectious individuals were comparable. However, Monte Carlo simulations highlight that, due to random variation, theoretically observed infectious individuals can considerably exceed predicted case numbers even shortly after a test was conducted.CONCLUSIONS:
This study demonstrates that the number of infectious individuals in a screened group of asymptomatic people can be effectively reduced, and this effect can be described mathematically. However, the false negative rate of a test, the time since the negative test and the underlying SARS-CoV-2 incidence are critical parameters in determining the observed subsequent number of cases in tested population groups.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Diseases
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Med Res Methodol
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12874-021-01361-3
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